Cambio climático y desempeño económico en América Latina: impactos, vulnerabilidades y respuestas adaptativas

Tulio Andrés Clavijo Gallego; Carlos Enrique Osorio Garcés; Alexandra Forero Mendoza

doi:10.58763/rc2026618

Autores/as

Tulio Andrés Clavijo Gallego Universidad del Cauca. Popayán, Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3737-0542
Carlos Enrique Osorio Garcés Universidad del Cauca. Popayán, Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5416-2959
Alexandra Forero Mendoza Universidad de la Amazonia. Florencia, Colombia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8163-8118

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58763/rc2026618

Palabras clave:

cambio climático, desarrollo económico, desarrollo sostenible, América Latina, política ambiental

Resumen

Introducción: El cambio climático constituye un desafío creciente para el desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe por sus efectos sobre la productividad, la infraestructura, el empleo, las finanzas públicas y las condiciones de vida. El estudio tuvo como objetivo comprender las percepciones, valoraciones y marcos interpretativos de especialistas acerca de la relación entre cambio climático y desempeño económico regional, con énfasis en impactos, vulnerabilidades y respuestas adaptativas. Métodos: Se desarrolló una investigación cualitativa básica, de orientación interpretativo-constructivista y alcance descriptivo-interpretativo. Participaron 12 especialistas seleccionados mediante muestreo no probabilístico por bola de nieve. Se realizaron entrevistas semiestructuradas por videoconferencia entre marzo y julio de 2026. La información fue examinada mediante análisis temático híbrido, deductivo-inductivo, con apoyo de ATLAS.ti. Resultados: Los hallazgos evidenciaron que los efectos climáticos se propagan mediante cadenas productivas, laborales, territoriales y fiscales, y que su intensidad depende de vulnerabilidades estructurales asociadas con desigualdad, dependencia de sectores sensibles, exposición territorial, restricciones financieras y capacidades institucionales desiguales. Asimismo, se identificó una brecha persistente entre la formulación de políticas climáticas y su implementación efectiva, especialmente en los niveles subnacionales. Asimismo, se reconocieron oportunidades asociadas con innovación, energías renovables, soluciones basadas en naturaleza y transformación productiva, condicionadas por capacidades de gobernanza, recursos y continuidad institucional regional adecuada. Conclusiones: La adaptación climática debe integrarse a la planificación económica y territorial como componente estructural del desarrollo. Fortalecer la resiliencia requiere políticas preventivas, financiamiento suficiente, capacidades institucionales, diversificación productiva y protección de los grupos con menor capacidad adaptativa, superando respuestas fragmentadas y exclusivamente reactivas.

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